H-1B and the Entropy of Victory

"the only thing worse for an autistic man than feeling powerless is feeling dependent on other people to fix it"

Update Jan 26, 2025: In this article I afforded Elon the benefit of the doubt over the recent H1B debate on X. However, he has since been more or less proven as a fake gamer, and my sympathy is wearing increasingly thin. This post details my updated position on him. Besides being a bit less charitable toward him had I written this today, I stand by pretty much everything else written below.

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Back in 2021, I wrote a piece called “Politics is Worse Than Video Games, Drugs, and Porn Combined”, a nauseatingly thorough exhortation on why your political vision will never manifest, that even if it did it wouldn’t improve your life dramatically, and thus that you should stop caring so much about politics and focus on building yourself and your own life.

However, with the recent materialization of the “Tech Right” and subsequent increase in “our team’s” political influence, one might reasonably wonder: was I dumb and wrong?

I am wrong about things all the time. Probably more than I am right. I certainly did not predict the new Tech Right. But does it change my position on how much you should care about politics? Not really. It does change some things and I will explain those. But before I do I’d like to first clarify my original position, as based on some comments on PIWT over the years I worry I spent so much time trying to convince you to stop believing politics is everything I never communicated the equally important fact that it is also not nothing.

So let me say this as directly as I can:

The laws, regulations, and culture which govern our world deeply impact you and me and everyone around us. Obviously. The goal of PIWT was not to get you to close your eyes to the significance of them, but to open your eyes to the significance of everything else so that you can have a better map upon which to operate. If you are extremely online and devoid of all personal power, yes, politics matters way less than you think, you can influence it way less than you think, and you need to prioritize most if not all of your energy toward building your power for like five or ten years if you want any chance at achieving the deeper goal which motivates your interest in the first place (to have a great life and future for yourself and the people you care about).

At the risk of belaboring this point beyond all possible utility, allow me to elucidate this more holistic perspective by way of likening you and your plight to the breeding rituals of fish.

The Fish Theory of Politics

Think of a salmon swimming up a stream. You are the salmon. The stream is entropy. You are trying to work your way up it so you can reproduce your little memes and genes, and it is trying to push you down into the ocean so you will fail and die and decompose back into space dust.

Civilization is a dam at the top we have built to restrict the stream, limiting the speed at which the water flows so we can more easily swim up it and reproduce said memes and genes. Better governance, laws, and culture means a more effective dam and thus a gentler stream; worse governance, laws, and culture means a less effective one and a more powerful stream.

Your personal power—your discipline, hard work, focus, ingenuity, network, skills, wealth, and all the rest—dictates how fast you are swimming.

The current of the stream is highest closest to the dam, meaning only the strongest swimmers have any chance at competing there. But by being ahead of everyone else they get to cast the highest reproductive net and also have the most influence over the architecture of the dam itself, able to move blocks around within it to their or their constituent’s benefit.

Even in a perfectly maintained and functional dam, there will still be a stream. To block it off entirely is impossible—it will just flood over and function as if there was no dam at all.

The point of PIWT was to convince you that you need to swim. Perhaps the five-thousand-word tirade about how it is delusional to believe the stream can be turned off, that everyone who tells you it can is only trying to get closer to the dam at your expense, and that you will never successfully change anything from all the way back here was a bit excessive. But if you are anything like me you will look for any excuse to sit around and complain all day, so I had to ensure that I walled off every last argument you might come up with for why you shouldn’t have to get movin’.

However, that does not mean the dam is pointless and doesn’t matter. The dam and it’s well-being is one of the most important things there is and it is currently falling apart. And even the least conspiratorially minded fully acknowledge that this is not from neglect but from active effort—all the fish closest to it are ripping it apart and using the material to build themselves little motes to reduce how hard they have to swim to maintain their position at the top.

And while each only takes a few blocks for themselves—no individual doing massive harm on their own and thus all able to rationalize away the ethical dilemma—after thousands of them over hundreds of years, the dam is degrading and the stream is getting stronger for the rest of us. We are having to swim faster and faster every year just to stay in place. And this is now getting so bad that even those near the top are starting to feel it. Some are even joining our team as a result!

But Max, you said that anyone who says they will save us is trying to pick our pocket. Do you think this about the Tech Right? Well, yes and no.

Will the Tech Right Save Us?

As I explained in PIWT, political and business leaders are not motivated by altruism. They are, just like the rest of us, motivated by status and power. The degree to which they make our lives better rather than exploit us is only the degree to which a well-functioning dam aligns our selfish aims. In a well-functioning capitalistic system, businessmen only become rich and admired to the degree they create useful products that improve our lives; in a well-functioning democratic system, politicians only gain power and influence to the degree they enact the will of the people.

However, as the dam starts to degrade our incentives begin to diverge. The strong current at the top which encourages those near it to steal blocks to create little moats to protect themselves leads to a negative feedback loop—the more blocks they steal, the stronger the stream becomes which encourages more block stealing, and so on and so on. This is one of the key reasons for the rise and fall of civilizations (See Exploitation and Consumerism is Actually a Good Thing).

Is Elon an exception to this? Motivated by some kind of deep familial love for Americans? I think the answer is obviously no. Elon, just like the rest of us, is pursuing his own goals. And he does not hide this fact. He has said dozens if not hundreds of times that his mission is to expand human consciousness to the stars. To pass the great filter. To survive the singularity.

Is this not altruism? I mean it depends on how you define it. I personally share Dawkins’ definition: altruism is an illusion; just another reproductive fitness game. We are selfless and generous to the degree which being so (or believing so or at least appearing to believe so) will increase our genetic and memetic reproduction via nth order effects. In which case, the main difference between Elon and most other billionaires is who he is playing his game against. Rather than trying to beat his peers of today he is trying to beat his peers of history, seeking to be admired long into the future like a Carnegie or Ford or Washington or Columbus.

But let’s for the sake of argument assume the normal definition of altruism. I still don’t think you can dispute his is toward future humans a century or a millennium from now, not America or Americans today. And thus America and American’s today are only a means to that end; and his benevolence toward us only extends as far as it helps him achieve his higher goals.

So he’s trying to pick our pocket then? Well, also no. Elon’s game and our game are currently highly aligned. America is still the productivity and ingenuity capital of the world despite its flaws. And thus, if Elon wants to get to Mars, develop a computer-brain interface, and all the other things he needs to do to achieve his mission, he needs America to not collapse.

We thus can and should be cautiously optimistic of the Tech Right and MAGA 2.0. I think they have a good chance of doing something productive to restore the dam to some degree. Yes, per last week’s ordeal over H1B, they don’t have the exact same vision as us, but allow me to make the case for why you should take what you can get.

Beggars Can’t Be Choosers

I am torn on whether the recent H1B debacle was a net good or net bad. On one hand, X performed exceptionally as a “public square”. At least compared to the existing alternatives. And the massive outpour of support for the nativist position, even from the left, seems to have greatly shifted the Overton Window in favor of the American people. America First is no longer just a fringe movement for extremely online aspies and grug-brained boomers. It has broken containment and infected all political sects.

On the other hand, I worry both over the degree which the H1B issue is being used as a purity test for Elon et al rather than a meaningful policy disagreement (a methodology I have warned against at length in the past), and then Elon’s poor responses and X’s alleged unfair bannings. Are these just some growing pains, our first butting of heads which will smooth itself out over time? Or is this the entropy of victory, the first cracks of what will inevitably destroy the movement and prevent anyone from actually getting what they want?

Personally, if my options are the MAGA policy of deporting millions of illegals, going to Mars, American accelerationism, etc but some small fraction of jobs still go to new legal immigrants over American citizens or the Democrat policy of opening the borders, no Mars, no acceleration, and even more jobs go to legal immigrants over American citizens, the former seems like the obvious choice.

Perhaps this is a false dichotomy. Perhaps it is not. I think it’s fair to say the probability these are our only two choices for the foreseeable future is high. And thus it seems short sighted to not think carefully about at what point we should compromise and take the W.

I mean, if Elon or Trump were to conclude “I put my entire career, life, and legacy on the line for these people and all they’ve ever done is sit in the stands and complain how we are not doing enough and will never be enough. You know what? Fuck em. Let ‘em rot.” Would this be good for us? “Unlikely” is generous. And such apathy is the best-case scenario for making enemies of them. Trump and Elon both have a storied history of active antipathy for those who they deem as enemies.

You literally have like two billionaires who are not rooting for your demise, both of whom will fight harder to destroy you than all the ones who already are, and you want to pick a fight with them? Over a few hundred thousand mostly productive jeets?

I’m not questioning whether the H1B program is good—It’s obviously bad in practice and perhaps even bad in theory. I’m questioning whether it’s important. Of all the hills we could possibly die on, is this really the one we want to pick?

Look I get it. You want someone in power to believe what you believe. Or to at least understand your plight and wish to relieve it. You’re tired of being powerless and abused. But have you considered that perhaps you believe what you believe precisely because you do not have power? Or, worse, that you have no power because you believe it? I think this is not only possible but likely. And if true, it would make your strategy of sever-all-alliances-at-the-first-sign-of-moral-impurity a way to guarantee you feel like you’re winning all the way until you lose for good (taking the rest of us with you).

If you want to defeat your enemy, the simplest way is to convince him that he has won, when in fact he hasn’t won shit. He might even be winning. Suppose he’s winning. Just convince him that he’s won, and he is finished. The oldest Jedi mind trick in the book. He thinks power belongs to him. But he actually belongs to it.
-It’s Easy From Here, Gray Mirror

Of course being a total kiss ass who never challenges anything is equally as bad if not worse. I am not suggesting that. What I am suggesting is that being an anti-social asshole who vilifies and annihilates anyone who disagrees with you is not your only other option.

(Ironically, Elon and the Dissident Right having almost the exact same personality is both what incited our alliance and also the thing most likely to destroy it.)

To be clear, I am not categorically against insults or trolling. Anyone who follows me on X knows that I love them. They are great fun. Stroke ego make brain feel good. And they can even be useful in negotiation. Trump is an expert at using them as such.

But they only work to the degree you have some power with which to back them up. And the reason you got interested in politics in the first place is precisely because you have none!

The situation you’re in is that of a twink tied to a chair with a bunch of jacked libs holding a gun to your head while they bring in gorillas to rape and kill your family. If some dude sneaks in and says he will set you free but you have to pay him gas money to get you home, there are only three reasons you would tell him to get lost:

1. Things aren’t actually that desperate and you have plenty of time to wait for alternative offers.

2. You have an army of guys outside with guns ready to come in a save the day.

3. You’re retarded.

Does it seem like we have decades to spare and so can play hardball with this alliance? Unlikely. Okay well maybe there are plenty of billionaires lying in wait to take up the mantle? You might have one. But he popped up precisely because it’s becoming popular to defend you. If the Trump Elon alliance goes south, do you think it will still be popular? Unlikely.

Well then maybe you have an army of guys with guns or some other form of power loyal to you who will come in and save you? Maybe a few influencers do. But not you. And by the time anyone fires it will already be too late anyway. No one is rational anymore at that point. And judging by every war, civil or otherwise, that has happened basically ever, it will almost certainly lead to something much worse than what we have now for at least our lifetimes.

So hey, maybe I’m outing myself as a cuck here but: the idea of going to war with the only allies we’ve had in decades before they’ve even had an opportunity to uphold their end of the bargain (Biden is still the president as of this writing) over a policy position they don’t even disagree with us on doesn’t seem like a well-reasoned decision aimed at winning. It seems like a knee jerk reaction based on the phenomena I described in Why The Right Always Loses: caring about fighting rather than winning; even going so far as being totally fine with losing as long as it means you get to go down swinging.

Assuming I’ve convinced you to at least consider there might be alternative options, allow me to rearticulate the wisdom of PIWT to give you my recommendation:

What You Should Do

If you are having a visceral reaction to this last week and feel “betrayed” by Elon et al for deceiving you about protecting American workers (they didn’t, you just all have autism and are talking past each other) and are now convinced they must prostrate themselves and apologize else you will make it your mission to destroy them, then yes, you are way too online and need to go touch grass.

But you don’t want to do that. Why not? Because you believe the meadow is burning down around you and this feels like laying down and abdicating your responsibility to stop it.

But here’s the problem. You are incompetent and useless. You want to be a heroic fire fighter spraying down the blaze and perhaps have even convinced yourself that is what you are doing. But you’re actually just a Karen yelling at the fire fighters and getting in their way. And if anything, all your yappin’ is blowing on the flames and only making them larger. We’d literally be better off if you just did nothing.

Look, I get it. You feel powerless. And dependent. And the only thing worse than an autistic man feeling powerless is feeling like he must rely on other people to fix it. And so on top of all this you feel ashamed. But all this is literally turning you into a screeching irrational woman.

This might be forgivable if not for the fact that you aren’t even accurately perceiving the danger. The fire is not moments away from melting you and everything you love. You are not looking out the window into your yard you are looking at a TV watching some hyperreal movie and you just think it’s your yard.

If you turn it off and calm down you will realize you still live in the best country in the world. Arguably at the best time in its history. Yes, sure, maybe we peaked fifty years ago. And our trajectory has not been looking good. But you, just like your boomer parents, wouldn’t have appreciated what you had when you had it anyway. Your hedonic treadmill would have ensured that you’d have been just as likely to find some other shit to be mad and dissatisfied with back in whatever decade you romanticize. Meaning that your misery and anxiety are not an objective reflection of reality but a subjective reflection of the fact that you are always looking for things to be miserable and anxious about. Your unhappiness came first, you only found a justification for it later. And that justification is wrong.

The reality is that today you have more opportunity, freedom, and capacity for agency than 99% of humans alive and 99.9% of humans ever in history. And this will likely stay true for the rest of your life even if the Democrats win every future election.

This doesn’t mean you shouldn’t fight to make the world better. You should. And you must. Hold MAGA accountable. Tell them when they are wrong. But do so via facts, evidence, and well-reasoned argument; not insults, accusations, and strawmen. Above all else, assume positive intent until you have overwhelming proof that they are no longer your best bet to helping you get what you want. Stop caring about their motives, start caring about their results. Stop picking fights just to feel something. Start trying to actually win.

Every great man of history was, at his base, just a man. And while you are perhaps not fit for the history books, you are certainly fit for an order of magnitude more importance, influence, power, and freedom than you currently possess. And you do not need to rely on a single thing outside of your direct and immediate control to get there.

And thus, again, for the sake of your own happiness and the well-being of all the people present or future which motivate you to fight, I implore you to: Get off the computer. Sort yourself out. Find something you can actually control to build or maintain and become so good at it that someone will pay you a lot of money to do it. Then make some friends, convince a woman to like you, start a beautiful family, and in ten years or so once you’ve achieved a wonderful life, and you’ve finally become worthy of power, then maybe you coming back and trying to take it will actually do something other than just make everything worse.