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Polynices's avatar

This is genius. Excellent framing of the issues. I wish I could remember how I even stumbled on your substack in the first place but this is a great essay.

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echinoderm's avatar

I read a lot of articles that try to explain our current situation and I think yours stands out for its originality and insightfullness. Though I have come to a different conclusion I find much to admire in your analysis.

In my view the analysis leads to the black pill rather than the green. By black pill I mean acknowledging that old idea called fate. I don't see the green pill as an option because there is no solution, there is no progress, and there is no return. There is only a working out of the natural cycle as it inevitably expresses itself.

This natural cycle of civilizations has long been observed by writers of the past: from Polybius to Ibn Khaldun to, more recently, John Glubb in his excellent "Fate of Empires". The cycle is simple: success in war leads to wealth and power, wealth and power corrupts, decline and dissolution follow. We just think it doesn't apply to us, as I imagine all the others did before.

In your "Why The Right Always Loses" you describe this unfolding very well: "Technology leads to birth control leads to feminism leads to promiscuity leads to porn and isolation and single motherhood." All good but don't stop. This then leads to what? You see the inexorable logic of events, yet the green pill idea implies that at some point we can interrupt the process and "fix" it. If, however, you don't recoil from the abyss then you can see that the internal forces will play out as they must, as they are destined to.

Since we are well into the corruption and decline phase, the ideas that are currently most adaptive (i.e., reproduce the best) are the ones that help us pretend we aren't drowning in corruption and decline. All copium. Asking the kinds of soul-searching questions that we do (myself included) is itself a symptom of decline. Those that won the founding successes in the early part of the cycle didn't ask such questions; they acted and acted with absolute conviction.

I would add one last thing. I think the black pill is the start of wisdom, not the end of it.

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